War: What is it Good For?

As I lay in bed last night in my stuffy Harlem apartment with the screenless bedroom window set ajar, I began to hear the unmistakable buzzing of a mosquito in my ear. Once the mosquito met a violent and undoubtedly premature death, I returned to bed and began to consider the role of the Mosquito writ large in the grand scheme of things. You know: circle of life, food chain type stuff. While I’m sure that they serve some positive purpose on the planet, I couldn’t think of one. All of I could think of was the spread of malaria, disease and general annoyance around the world. Then I began to think that perhaps the spread of disease was its positive contribution to the planet after all. Given that man has no natural predator, maybe the general spread of disease was designed to thin our numbers and keep nature in balance. Maybe disease does play a significant role in that regard, but it has to be more than that. Lots of people die from mosquito-born diseases such as malaria and dengue fever, but I can’t imagine that enough people die from such diseases to make a significant dent in our booming population.

That’s were man comes in.

There are over 6 billion humans on earth, and I read just yesterday that demographers project a human population of 12 billion by 2050. I think that 6 billion is probably already too many. I can’t imagine the stress that a population twice that size will place on the Earth. As we have seen time and time again in nature, a species in an environment with no natural predator tends to reproduce without impediment. But perhaps we do in fact have a natural predator that no one really considers.

Ourselves.

From the beginning, human history has been riddled with violence. So much so, that the study of history is often tracked by the occurrences of war. War is the primary focus and everything else simply goes to explain what happened after the last war and what lead up to the next one. It is not uncommon for hundreds of thousands of people to be killed over the course of a single war. I can’t think of anything else that even comes close to claiming as many lives over a comparably short period of time. Small fish eat plankton, big fish eat smaller fish, bears eat big fish, and then humans make coats and rugs out of bears. We’re at the top of the food chain. Aside from the occasional shark attack, dog mauling or unfortunate encounter with a cannibal, humans don’t get eaten by anything else, but that doesn’t mean that we ourselves aren’t preyed upon. We’re the product of our own ambition, greed and pride. We wage war for the accumulation of wealth and power, and one could argue that as a result, we provide a valuable service to nature. By taking on the responsibility of reducing our numbers, we have managed to maintain a rough balance with other populations on earth.

Perhaps in the grand scheme of things, war is actually good for something.

China is the most populated nation on Earth with over 1.3 billion people. In addition to that, the young adult Chinese population is disproportionately male, as an unfortunate result of a generation of its One Child policy. Given the abundance of young Chinese men and the dearth of young Chinese women for them to marry, some predict that a grand war instigated by China is inevitable. They point to examples and history and argue that the only way to either acquire enough marriage-aged women or significantly reduce the number of sexually frustrated Chinese men would be for the Chinese to wage a war of expansion. If they win, they’ll kill the men and take the women of the territory that they have occupied. If they lose, however, a significant number of young Chinese men will have been killed in the process. Either way: problem solved. I don’t know about the likelihood of any of that, but this does provide an example of how through the use of war, mankind provides a check on its own growth, despite the fact that population control wasn’t the goal.

This trend may be changing, however. As mankind becomes more advanced and integrated across borders, it appears that the need of war as a check on population growth diminishes and other tools are employed. The best example of this is the European Union, a major component of the Security Zone touted by international security analysts. Together with the US and Japan, the EU represents a zone in which war is not only unlikely, but almost unthinkable. The inextricably integrated economies and politics of these countries make war among them virtually impossible. This is especially remarkable when one considers that fact that both Europe and Japan would have very little history to speak of if the discussion of war were taken off the table. Along with the generation of unprecedented peace and prosperity that has swept across Western Europe, the EU has also witnessed declines in population. I believe that all Western European nations, with the possible exception of Ireland and Spain, have seen dwindling birth rates, with Germany and Italy leading the pack. As European families have become more prosperous and men and women alike have careers on which to focus, the emphasis on bearing children has diminished. Couples that would have had 2 or 3 children a generation ago may now decide to only have one child or none at all. The inverse correlation between prosperity and birth rate has global implications. Women in economically depressed parts of Africa and Latin America tend to bear more children then comparably aged women in Western Europe or Japan, both of which are struggling with the short run economic effects of a dwindling population. As the birth rates in Europe and Japan continue to fall, I suspect to see increased migration to these areas from economically depressed regions of the world. Hopefully, this increased global mobility and integration and the resulting increased investment in human capital in the developing world will allow prosperity to spread throughout the world.

Once we’ve truly achieved global prosperity, instead of creating new people and figuring out a way to kill them off later, maybe we can just start creating fewer people in the first place.