An Unlikely Alternative

Iraq is a mess. I think we’ve finally reached the point where everyone concedes that things really aren’t going well. I’ve been thinking a lot about any possible solution out of this problem for the US and the only thing that I could come up with is a solution that no American President would support (and I don’t know if I would even do it myself if I were President), but it’s the only thing I can think of to make a horrible solution at least a little less so.

The problem, as I see it, is that we’re losing the war in Iraq and it doesn’t look like it’s going to get any better no matter how many troops or money we throw at it. Some argue that we should just pull out of the region altogether. Since we’re not helping things anyway, maybe we should just cut our losses and head home. We would be leaving a mess behind, but at least there wouldn’t be anymore US lives and taxpayers’ money lost. The problem with that argument, as I see it, is that while things are really bad now, the US pulling out immediately could make things a lot worse. Not only would al Qaeda set up shop, but Iran and Syria would begin to move in leaving a very unstable region even more so. Where does that leave us? Staying the course is a waste of time, money, and, most importantly, human life, but leaving would likely set in motion a course of events that would necessitate renewed US involvement in the region at some point in the future.

Let’s face it: going to Iraq was a really bad idea. In the interest of full disclosure (and at the risk of sounding like John Kerry), I actually half-supported the war during a period well before the US actually went into Iraq. In the summer of 2002 when Colin Powell had convinced the US to plead the case before the United Nations, I thought that they may be doing the right thing. However, when the UN refused its support, I was completely against the invasion. I supported the idea of a US-led UN operation in Iraq (something akin to the Korean War), but a unilateral preemptive strike sounded like a terrible idea to me. Even if the war had been won as easily as President Bush had thought, I felt that unilateral action by the US would set a bad precedent in the international system. Just because we have the military, financial and political power to do something, it doesn’t necessarily mean that we should actually do it. And if we go around toppling regimes that we don’t like, what’s stopping China or Russia or Iran from doing the same?

So my advice is based on the premise that going to war was a huge mistake in the first place. I think that President Bush should go on national television (which, in effect, means going on international television) and tell the world that he was wrong and that the rest of the world was right and the US should have never gone into Iraq. And at the same time, he should remind the world that although the greatly increased instability in the region is our fault, it’s now become the world’s problem, and in order to overcome this problem, we need to work together to try to find a solution. Stability in the Middle East is in everyone’s interests and the only way of bringing any real stability to the region would be to form a truly international coalition (the US, the UK, Latvia and Estonia don’t count) that could provide the military, financial and logistical support that is needed. This is potentially too large and important a problem to just hand the reigns over to the Iraqis in a year’s time. Nothing against the Iraqi security forces, but clearly they’re no match for al Qaeda, Iran and Syria combined. I obviously don’t know the military steps that would need to be taken to secure the country, but I do feel pretty confident that the plans that are on the table at the moment aren’t going to do the trick. If we were able to involve the EU, China, Russia, the Saudis, Brazil and other large and small states around the world, maybe we could devise a plan and accumulate the military and financial support that would be necessary to actually turn Iraq into a stable country.

I know, it’s never going to happen. No US President would ever admit that the US ever did anything ill-conceived, but honestly, I can’t think of any way around it. I think that if we begin to treat other nations as partners and equals, instead of small children, not only could we solve the problem in Iraq, but we could also prevent US international hegemonic decline, which, in my opinion, is very imminent. (I hope to get the time to write an entry on that point shortly.)